Vikram Singh Basnyat
National depression and apathy is dangerous. It breeds nonchalance in a nation which acts like a beacon in and to neighbouring states necessitating strategic initiatives to pre-empt similar action by others. Sadly, Nepal is such a country where any tectonic shift towards either of her neighbours results in retaliatory action from the other as a geopolitical necessity.
Kissinger has written in his book Diplomacy “The irony was that, after a certain point, expansionism no longer enhanced Russia’s power but brought about its decline. In 1849, Russia was widely considered the strongest nation in Europe. Seventy years later, its dynasty collapsed and it temporary disappeared from the ranks of the Great Powers. Hegemony in Asia is not in America’s interest. But the overwhelming concentration in hindering the emergence of another superpower in the post Cold War years might have led to the overlooking of the rise of the hydra headed menace of terrorism and another Vietnam style debacle in Iraq.”
Robert D. Kaplan writes in his book The Coming Anarchy “In moderate doses, apathy is not necessarily harmful. I have lived and travelled in countries with both high voter turnouts and unstable politics; the low voter turnouts in the United States do not by themselves worry me. The philosopher James Harrington observed that the very indifference of most people allows for a calm and healthy political climate. Apathy, after all, often means that the political situation is healthy enough to be ignored. The last thing America needs is a more voter – particularly badly educated and alienated ones – with a passion for politics.”
When a nation no longer has the choice of different state policy options and decisions are made or unmade and countered in foreign capitals, national leaders become objects of ridicule, shame and helplessness is perceived as a national malaise which leads to national depression.
How often is it required for foreign envoys to keep on meeting the Prime Minister? The effect in reverse order could have a sad outcome on the morale of the nation, let alone the retaliatory affirmation by the other neighbour. This could be even more dangerous if it is not tolerated. After all, if they cannot respect us because of the corruptibility of our leaders, let them at least contest over us.
The Nepalese are suffering anyway. Armed struggle is a way of life. Agreements are made only to be broken. The United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) has little to do, yet enjoy the hospitality of the Nepalese allowing them to lunch in Dhulikhel, supper in Nagarkot and enjoy late night dancing in Thamel. And yet, what hurt the thinking public are the pictures of Maoist cadres carrying modern weapons with UNMIN stickers on them. Does Nepal have a foreign policy at all?
Suffice is to state that the rise of terrorism has become a source of great concern to all related nations and none of the earlier major players are totally happy with their own past policies. Driving stumps in marshy lands would make Nepal an international playground and somewhat like Austria during the Cold War. A nation and her people have to be proud of it. But the situation is like “the Gaul is at the gate”- (Soon her pride shall kiss the ground, Hark! The Gaul is at the gate). The fast deterioration of mental verve has to be arrested and pride restored as soon as possible. This does not seem to be happening and worse still is that the promises for a brighter future is nowhere in sight. Who decides whether or when the Constituent Assembly (CA) elections would be held or not?
Thus internationally, we have become insignificant and simply a playing field. Politically, where do we stand? CA elections have been postponed three times. Any disinterested spectator or political novice can observe that none of the major political players were really interested in this exercise. The Prime Minister keeps on repeating his assurances that the CA elections would be held on the decided date, but simultaneously the Maoists keep on adding preconditions which make it virtually impossible for the elections to take place. But the bottom line is: people do not believe the CA elections would be held at the appointed time. People have also observed that with few days left, the political cadres of any party have not been able to go to the villages, like earlier on, and are yet hanging around Kathmandu.
Politics must be participatory and certainly comprehensible. In the present arrangement of the Seven Party Alliance and the Maoists (SPAM) elaborate ruling without any Parliamentary opposition, the domination of the Maoists is starkly delineated. Indeed, there are questions in people’s minds whether the Maoists ever intended to play by multi-party rules, or whether their real objective is to capture state power by force, a tool with which they have been successfully utilising in the form of the Young Communist League (YCL) in the context of all their atrocities continuing unabated.
Two other seemingly obdurate issues on the political scenario are the Terai and indigenous groups. While there can be no two opinions about the need for inclusiveness, there must also be an urgent feeling for all Nepalese with a sense of belonging. But then the Terai sentiments tend to be reflected on the desire of other ethnic groups to have their own distinctive homeland, that too in the context of a federated structure. Moreover, 59 indigenous groups want one representative each in the new legislature. With the last census figures as: Kshetris 15.18%, Brahmins 12.47%, Magars 7.14%, Tharus 6.75%, Tamangs 5.64%, Newars 5.48%, Muslims 4.27%, Kamis 3.94%, Yadavs 3.94%, Rais 2.79% and Gurungs 2.39% - would not there be a possibility of a reverse discrimination scenario in future?
But sadly, the most worrisome factor still remains, and has been the fact that a new form of expressing dissent which encompasses violence of a different nature from lethal to disruption of normal life. The Maoists success of using arms to achieve political ends has resulted in many smaller armed groups emulating this route to power. This route is a sure path towards anarchy, leaving the state in paralysis with the end result being an ungovernable one. At the same time, the Maoists intransigence in returning earlier seized property is tempting others to follow a similar pattern. Thus the law and order situation has become the greatest worry of the common man.
No doubt, this has also affected the industrial sector as well. Many industries have closed down, extortion and shootings of industrialists continue and now cross border gangs are effectively active. Tourism is affected and capital flight is rampant. On top of this, the government budget has to have an outlay for the costly CA elections. We cannot also forget the additional cost of 23,000 Civil Service promotions and 7,000 new schools that the government has announced which it will fund and run. One cannot set aside the fact that the parameters and conditions of the World Bank have not changed. Far too many political groups including the Maoists, are still surviving on government largesse, yet continue to employ mafia and terrorist tactics of intimidation and extortion. Therefore, it is quite evident that Nepal’s economy would be in the doldrums in the coming year.
Traffic disruptions alone, which have become a way of life, extract so much economic and psychological toll. For any group with a grievance, causing traffic disruption, organising Bandhs and clashing with the Police is an every day occurrence. Civil servants organise strikes for putting forth their demands within the premises of the central secretariat, the judicial sector padlocks law courts, university teachers protest for enforcing a fourteen month old agreement that envisages all earlier appointed university officials be sacked forthwith. Confusion seems to be the name of the game.
During this period, the security situation and the morale of the security forces are being eroded continuously.
The above is not meant to be a negative comment on the advent of democracy, but just a reflection of the opinions of the people. Except those who stand to gain directly from the present circumstances, all the rest are somehow or the other disappointed. This includes those who strongly believe that the practise of democracy should be given ample time.
It is not that the situation is grim now; it is that the immediate future holds no promise. The nation is becoming ungovernable, the economy is heading for uncertainty, electoral politics is taking a back seat to violence prone activism and the nation cannot hold its head high in the community of nations. What bothers the intellectuals most is whether Nepal is still a valid focus for international diplomatic attention, what bothers the man on the street is that not only his present but also his future looks bleak and insecure. Is it not time to analyse our immediate past and re-evaluate the role of time honoured institutions of stability? Above all, hopefully, the Nepalese should not end up regretting the dismal application of their democracy.
(The views expressed by the author are his own. The author can be reached at e-mail: basnyat10@hotmail.com)
